Orient Cognitive Arbitrage Platform User Guide

Welcome to the “Orient” Cognitive Arbitrage Platform—an interactive software suite developed by More Cowbell Unlimited purpose-built for analyzing the Information Environment (IE).

The platform presents cognitive indicators which all five information tribes–IO, PSYOP & MISO, Public Affairs, Civil Affairs, and Intel–can use to get greater fidelity in understanding the IE, support planning, and provide evidence-based situational awareness of the dynamic systems affecting operations.

The “Orient” Cognitive Arbitrage Platform leverages data from the Global Database for Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) which monitors the world’s broadcast, print, and web news from nearly every country in over 100 languages and identifies the people, locations, organizations, counts, themes, sources, emotions, quotes, images and events driving our global society.

Users are able to conduct targeted queries in three distinct apps. The Cognitive Terrain app allows users to select specific queries by changing the non-state actor, theme and country of interest. This capability then displays relative Cognitive Load in time and space in two different views: (1) the Standard view which provides national or country level Cognitive Load data, and (2) the Operational/Tactical view which displays Cognitive Load at the city level within the selected country. Time intervals can be toggled between daily, weekly, and monthly visuals.

The Actor Operations, Activities & Investments (OAI) Map displays a global view of where, when, and how countries like China, Russia, and Iran plus non-state actors have been engaging globally over the last decade (back to 2015) by theme. Users select the state or non-state actor (including the United States) and topic or theme. Monthly activity can be visualized in terms of complexity or news volume.

Finally, the News Outlet tool displays local, national and international news outlets (web, print, etc) by theme within a Geographic Combatant Command. Individual complexity scores are calculated and shown by a line graph while an article count is included as a bar graph below. Specific Media outlets can be selected to display complexity results by hovering the cursor over that outlet.

Getting Started

A simple landing page is the gateway to access these powerful applications. Users can either click on the specific app or access them under the pop up menu on the blue border. System documentation, such as this user guide is also available.

Cognitive Terrain

Within the Cognitive Terrain application, users can select specific queries by changing the

  • Non-state actor
  • Theme
  • Country of interest

This capability then displays relative Cognitive Load in time and space in two different views:

  1. The Standard view which provides national or country level Cognitive Load data
  2. The Operational/Tactical view which displays Cognitive Load at the city level within the selected country.

When Cognitive Load is high, the people who are experiencing the system are more likely to be cognitively overwhelmed, on average.

See the Related Readings & Other Media section of this User Guide for technical details.

The Cognitive Terrain button allows users to select any CCMD. This will lead users to a selection of curated results, which include the most positive and negative changes of Cognitive Load across short, medium and long term intervals. Users can select Country, Theme and if interested, non-state actors who are active globally within these systems.

Once you select a result, the user will be taken to Cognitive Terrain page.

Within this page you can make additional adjustments to the data/analytic results you are looking at.

You can select a non-state actor from the drop down.

Adjust the Theme

Change the country

Change the Time Series. Important thing to note about Time Series is applicability. Monthly time series goes back ten years and is helpful for longer term uses, such as establishing a baseline for an area of interest. Weekly data goes back 18 months and can provide clarity into on-going operations and activities. Daily time series of the past 90 days highlight rapidly shifting aspects of the information environment. Keep in mind that daily results may be based on relatively few news articles, which can skew results, so further investigation may be needed.

Breaking down functionality graph by graph, the Global Cognitive Terrain map provides a Global view as the default view. The heat map displays national results across a CCMD. Darker shades reveal higher level and lighter shades are lower levels.

Below the map display, a short summary and additional analysis are provided. These are AI-driven results that quickly provide textual and statistical aspects of the information environment that can be pulled into other reports or highlight area for further analysis

Operational/Tactical View

A geographic heat map view displays each country within the CCMD by relative score.  Beside that map, a graph shows changes in Cognitive Load over time intervals going back 10 years. Time Series can be toggled between:

  • Daily
  • Weekly
  • Monthly

Additionally, you can switch to the Tactical view of the Global map, seen below.

Each map allows you to zoom in and out or move in any direction.

Within the Operational/Tactical [Standard] view, geotags populate within the selected country representing cities with their own cognitive terrain displays. Clicking a location in the table (or geotag) will populate that city’s cognitive terrain trends 10 years [in the default Monthly view], enabling users to visualize dynamics specific to various cities within a country. Users may examine weekly trends going back 18-months and daily trends going back 90-days, as well.

Additional displays include an AI driven text summary of the results highlighting key results by theme and non-state actor, where the country selected is acting or being acted upon by theme. Next to that, a graphic chart displays the Cognitive Load score by country across the area of responsibility for relative impact. Finally, each specific score, by time interval, can be clicked on to display the specific database entries used to calculate that result. These will take the user to the full text article in its native format for further analysis.

Below the map you’ll find the most relevant news articles that impacted the cognitive load results. Users can click on any link and will be taken to the complete article for further review and analysis. These can be consumed in the original language or be translated into English as needed.

On the upper right hand side, you’ll find the Global Cognitive Terrain Trend

You’ll notice in the image above that Cognitive Terrain is crossed out. When you click on it, you’ll see the Moving Average and Cognitive Terrain lines together.

Likewise, if you’d prefer to only see the Cognitive Terrain, you can click on Moving Average and that line will disappear from the graph.

If you slide the white circle on the upper right hand corner of the graph, you’ll see additional metrics including

  • Complexity
  • % Conflict
  • Moving Average
  • News Volume

For additional insight on a discrete data point you can hover and view a chart which displays an aggregated view of the distribution of news activities. By hovering over multiple data points, analysts may gain a better understanding of the dynamic nature of the system.

If you’d prefer to a larger view of the graph, select the Expand button on the lower left hand corner of the graph.

Below the Global Cognitive Terrain Trend is the Global Cognitive Terrain Comparison which compares the target country to others in the region.

Hovering over a data point on the graph provides you with additional insight as to the statistical basis for the cognitive load scores, such as the percentage of conflicting and cooperating data from GDELT.



Additional displays, below the map, include an AI driven text summary of the results highlighting key results by theme and non-state actor, where the country selected is acting or being acted upon by theme. A more detailed explanation of the process used to calculate the cognitive indicators is also provided, as well as sample queries that can be used to create LLM prompts to conduct similar research.

Next to that, a graphic chart displays the Cognitive Load score by country across the area of responsibility for relative impact. Finally, each specific score, by time interval, can be clicked on to display the specific database entries used to calculate that result. These will take the user to the full text article in its native format for further analysis.

What you get from this analysis

  • New Opportunities: Identify fleeting moments of influence opportunity based upon estimated cognitive states of key leaders and target populations
  • Influence Timing: Determine the optimal timing for influence operations by identifying periods of high or low cognitive load.
  • Improved Efficiency: Understand the cognitive landscape, avoid wasting effort on ineffective strategies, and tailor approaches for maximum impact.
  • Situational Awareness: Gain a comprehensive overview of the information environment, enable users to make informed decisions, and anticipate potential challenges.
  • Refined Level of Analysis: Tailor your analysis of cognitive load data down to the city level to gain insights into the relative cognitive states of specific target audiences.

PMSEII

  • PMESII-PT Theme View: PMESII-PT is a widely used framework used to analyze and understand an operational environment by examining eight interrelated variables: Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical environment, and Time. We are creating this view by bundling applicable themes into these broader categories to give users the ability to visualize all of these variables on a single screen to convey a deeper understanding of how they interrelate to one another as a complex system.

You’ll find the PMSEII reports via the Actions drop down in the Cognitive Terrain report.

The PMESII output is displayed in both graph form as well as a map view that differentiates between the highest and lowest regional locations that contributed to the overall national average.

In order to change the time period you can select the filter on the upper right hand side. This will provides the following options:

  • Daily
  • Weekly
  • Monthly

Cognitive Terrain Analysis

Users are able to visualize cognitive load by toggling between five distinct views:

  1. Country View (default),
  2. Combatant Command (CCMD) View with selected country excluded,
  3. CCMD View with selected country included,
  4. Global View with CCMD excluded, and
  5. All View

These views differ according to which outlets are included and excluded in the cognitive load calculation:

Country View: includes only those outlets financially and legally incorporated in the selected country. This view provides the greatest fidelity into events with a primarily local, city, or provincial significance: new city infrastructure projects, local flood advisories, allegations of corruption against a Mayor or local official, etc. The country view is also likely to reflect sociopolitical perspectives unique to the selected country. That is, outlets incorporated in a particular country may cover certain events of various themes in a more or less cooperative vs conflicting nature compared to other countries with different sociopolitical dynamics.

CCMD View (Selected Country Excluded): includes outlets financially and legally incorporated in all countries within the CCMD excluding the selected country. This view is ideal for assessing the cognitive load of TAs focused on regionally significant events as they are reported through regional perspectives and sociopolitical dynamics. For example, with this view selected, users can visualize the cognitive load of Israeli TAs with a special focus on events as they are covered from the perspectives of their CENTCOM neighbors.

CCMD View (Selected Country Included): includes outlets financially and legally incorporated in all countries within the CCMD including the selected country. This view is ideal for examining the cognitive load of TAs focused on regionally significant events: border disputes between two countries, development projects or commercial activities between multiple countries in a CCMD, terrorist attacks from transregional violent extremist organizations, etc.

Global View: includes outlets incorporated financially and legally outside of the CCMD. This view is ideally suited for visualizing the cognitive load of TAs focused on events with global/international implications: trade deals, immigration/refugee crises, or military conflicts – especially those which involve global powers like the US, China, or the United Nations.

All View: includes all outlets captured within GDELT.

Actor Operations, Activities & Investments (OAI)

Overview: A global view of where, when, and how countries like China, Russia, and Iran plus non-state actors have been engaging globally over the last decade (back to 2015) by theme.

Darker shades indicate more OAI during that time period.

Users select the state or non-state actor (including the United States) and topic or theme. Monthly activity can be visualized in terms of either complexity or volume of news. More themes and actors will be added in upcoming software releases.

Results are displayed by a complexity score where a darker outline equals a higher score.

This tool provides users with the ability to:

  • Uncover previously unknown non-state actor activity within geographies of interest
  • Assess local favorability or current perceptions of such foreign actors (including the United States) operating within geographies of interest.

The results can be shown in time series interval “snapshots” or played in motion to show changing results over time.

You Select Actor, Topic and View (which queries over ten years of GDELT data to provide global results. This is the same data set used in the Cognitive Terrain app within Orient.

After you select your filters you can play the map at various speeds to get [dynamic displays of where and to what level of activity, the selected actor is appearing globally by the selected theme.]

What you get from this analysis

  • Identifying Areas of Competition: The app helps users recognize regions where foreign state actors are actively competing for influence, enabling proactive strategies to counter their efforts.
  • Anticipating Future Activity: By observing historical trends and current activity patterns, users can anticipate potential future areas of focus for foreign state actors.
  • Understanding Adversary Strategies: The app provides insights into the long-term strategic priorities and areas of interest of foreign state actors.

News Outlets

Overview: The News Outlet tool displays local, national and international news outlets (web, print, etc) by theme within a Geographic Combatant Command. Individual complexity scores are calculated and shown by a line graph while an article count is included as a bar graph below.

Specific Media outlets can be selected to display complexity results by hovering the cursor over that outlet.

A useful search box at the bottom of the display allows users to search a specific outlet and display changes in complexity scores over time. Users can gain insights into media ownership, bias and other factors which drive the theme’s complexity within the CCMD.

Again, just like the other applications within Orient, the user can select the CCMD and theme of interest to query the GDELT data set.

This allows you to select specific outlets or track the overall sentiment

What you get from this analysis:

  • Target Audience Analysis: Enhanced understanding of the media consumption habits of target audiences illuminating influential outlets for message dissemination.
  • Message Tailoring: Tailor messaging to resonate with specific audiences by understanding news coverage complexity and volume.
  • Media Landscape Assessment: Gain a comprehensive overview of the media landscape within a region, including insights into potential biases and affiliations.
  • Message Amplification: Understand where and how to amplify stories for maximum impact.

SpaceCom Search

This allows search and filter on the Satellite Search report.

The Country filter, Orbit, and Satellite View

This provides you with the following views:

Satellite Information which is used for

For details and additional insight, you can hover over a data point to get

Individual Satellite Entropy

You can see additional slices of insight via the drop down on the upper right hand side which provides the following options:

  • Mission
  • Longitude
  • Rocket
  • Country

Each of these views will provide insight about [the level of activity in the system, including likely points where the system is shifting from a planning mode into execution and back.]

User Guide

Practical Applications & Interesting Findings

This section presents some interesting findings and practical applications.

Maritime News Complexity in Ecuador (2015-2024)

From 2015 through 2024, maritime-related news for Ecuador has been getting gradually conflicting in nature. The people who are involved in this system, such as Ecuadorian government leaders, naval personnel, and related industries are experiencing greater cognitive load, on average. For a likely answer, see the finding below at the header named Adversary Operations, Activities and Investments in SOUTHCOM Related to Maritime (2015-2024).

See it for yourself here: https://frenkleapp.morecowbellunlimited.com/trend/SOUTHCOM/All/Maritime/EC/Monthly

Sudan Coups and Unrest (2015-2024)

See it for yourself here: https://frenkleapp.morecowbellunlimited.com/trend/AFRICOM/All/Unrest/SD/Monthly

Adversary Operations, Activities and Investments in AFRICOM Related to Mining (2015-2024)

Darker shaded countries indicate more news complexity; more cooperative and conflicting news stories involving these three countries as one of the actors. More complexity indicates where Russia, China, and Iran have expended more energy over the last decade. For example, Iran has expended more energy in Somalia compared to China and Russia. Whereas, China has likely committed more resources in Ghana than Russia and Iran.

Adversary Operations, Activities and Investments in SOUTHCOM Related to Maritime (2015-2024)

Notice the high complexity of news involving China and Maritime within Ecuador.

Non-state Actor Operations, Activities and Investments (OAI) July 2024

During the month of July 2024, three large multinational companies have different operational profiles in AFRICOM and CENTCOM. Exxon had more news complexity within Mozambique, and Chevron was managing news complexity related to Iran. All three companies had operations within Nigeria.

Related Readings & Other Media

Interested users can read use cases and learn more about the complexity science, information theory, and operations research underlying these tools:

  • John Bicknell on Cognitive Indicators and Global Competition: During this Cognitive Crucible episode, Doug Abdiel “reverse-interviews” John Bicknell, the CEO|Founder of More Cowbell Unlimited and traditional Cognitive Crucible podcast host. John discusses cognitive indicators and related technology that the US Army is prototyping in order to create effects, maintain Information Advantage, and compete globally.
  • Cognitive Terrain Mapping: Charting a way forward in Information Operations: This article describes Cognitive Terrain Mapping. Currently being prototyped by the US Army, it is a versatile new capability which employs complexity science and information theory to visualize the changing cognitive states of humans within systems. The Army is interested in using the capability within its information advantage (IA) portfolio. After a brief introduction, Cognitive Terrain Mapping is explained, and a use case with benefits is presented.
  • Cognitive Arbitrage: Complexity, Variety and Human Cognitive States are Related: Arbitrage is a process for finding and capitalizing on system disparities or imbalances. Cognitive arbitrage identifies and capitalizes on opportunistic moments within systems based upon changes in human cognitive states. Complexity, the variety of system activities, and human cognition are fundamentally related. This article explains this relationship, provides examples, and recaps several use cases which help set the conditions for Information Advantage (IA).
  • The Coin of the Realm: Understanding and Predicting Relative System Behavior: This article discusses a way of understanding and predicting relative system behavior–what we call “The Coin of the Realm.” After discussing the importance of predicting relative system behavior, we define our usage of entropy. Then, we review a recent study of interacting geostationary (GEO) satellite ecosystems. We then present several case studies which relate the findings to other domains of national security interest and the information professionals community.

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